The development of cocoa trees
strong enough to keep up with the world's chocolate demands has
scientists in frenzy as global consumption is forecast to rise by 25
per cent in the next eight years.Demand for the product will increase by roughly 5 million metric tons by 2020 according to food companies and commodity traders while this year's supply is already expected to fall short.
'The crops don't perform well. They're aging pretty badly. Farmers don't have a lot of tools and training,' Andrew Pederson, the global chocolate manager for candy company Mars, Inc, told ABC.
The current trees are reported as old, fragile and low-yielding in their crops.
And in Ivory Coast and Ghana, home to the world's top two cocoa suppliers, dry weather and a civil war in Ivory Coast - at one point banning the export of cocoa - have as well hindered production.
Agronomists in response to the expected shortfalls say they are working to graft new kinds of cocoa trees, within the confines of time and land availability.
'There are two alternatives,' Howard-Yana Shapiro, Mar's director of plant science and external research told the Wall Street Journal.
'One, we cut down all the trees in the tropics and only plant cocoa, which would be an unmitigated disaster. Or, we increase [yields],' he said.
Fredy Pinchi Pinchi, an agronomist working in the Amazon jungle on just that latter mission, says grafting improved cocoa trees to meet demand takes years to achieve, with never guaranteed success.
Once planted, the trees also take at least four years to bear the cocoa beans.
'I'm looking for an elite plant. That's the goal,' Mr Pinchi told the Wall Street Journal. 'There are a lot of people who depend on cocoa.'
Each year according to ABC, the demand increases 2.5 to 3 per cent, adding up to about four million tons.
Currently, however, this year's
supply is expected to fall short of the demand by 71,000 metric tons,
according to the International Cocoa Organization.
With that shortfall, international cocoa prices may rise within in the next six months' time, the managing director of Malaysian cocoa processor Guan Chong Bhd predicted last month, according to the Wall Street Journal's Market Watch.
'From my very personal perspective, overnight there probably won't be a major variance in chocolate prices for consumers,' Robert Peck, the senior director of operations for the World Cocoa Foundation told ABC.
He dually states that an improvement does need to be made to the cocoa supply, but that the industry is a 'very well-developed sector,' with their eye having been on any potential problems for years.
'The crops don't perform well. They're aging pretty badly. Farmers don't have a lot of tools and training,' Andrew Pederson, the global chocolate manager for candy company Mars, Inc, told ABC.
The current trees are reported as old, fragile and low-yielding in their crops.
And in Ivory Coast and Ghana, home to the world's top two cocoa suppliers, dry weather and a civil war in Ivory Coast - at one point banning the export of cocoa - have as well hindered production.
Agronomists in response to the expected shortfalls say they are working to graft new kinds of cocoa trees, within the confines of time and land availability.
'There are two alternatives,' Howard-Yana Shapiro, Mar's director of plant science and external research told the Wall Street Journal.
'One, we cut down all the trees in the tropics and only plant cocoa, which would be an unmitigated disaster. Or, we increase [yields],' he said.
Fredy Pinchi Pinchi, an agronomist working in the Amazon jungle on just that latter mission, says grafting improved cocoa trees to meet demand takes years to achieve, with never guaranteed success.
Once planted, the trees also take at least four years to bear the cocoa beans.
'I'm looking for an elite plant. That's the goal,' Mr Pinchi told the Wall Street Journal. 'There are a lot of people who depend on cocoa.'
Each year according to ABC, the demand increases 2.5 to 3 per cent, adding up to about four million tons.
With that shortfall, international cocoa prices may rise within in the next six months' time, the managing director of Malaysian cocoa processor Guan Chong Bhd predicted last month, according to the Wall Street Journal's Market Watch.
'From my very personal perspective, overnight there probably won't be a major variance in chocolate prices for consumers,' Robert Peck, the senior director of operations for the World Cocoa Foundation told ABC.
He dually states that an improvement does need to be made to the cocoa supply, but that the industry is a 'very well-developed sector,' with their eye having been on any potential problems for years.