A new study from researchers at
Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer
from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if
people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.
Smithsonian Magazine
writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says "the world is on
track for disaster" and that current evidence coincides with a famous,
and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth."
Produced for a group called The Club of Rome,
the study's researchers created a computing model to forecast different
scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global
resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels
of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental
protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced
and distributed in 37 different languages.
Most of the computer scenarios
found population and economic growth continuing at a steady rate until
about 2030. But without "drastic measures for environmental
protection," the scenarios predict the likelihood of a population and
economic crash.
However, the study said
"unlimited economic growth" is still possible if world governments
enact policies and invest in green technologies that help limit the
expansion of our ecological footprint.
The Smithsonian notes that
several experts strongly objected to "The Limit of Growth's" findings,
including the late Yale economist Henry Wallich, who for 12 years served as a governor of the Federal Research Board
and was its chief international economics expert. At the time, Wallich
said attempting to regulate economic growth would be equal to
"consigning billions to permanent poverty."
Turner says that perhaps the most
startling find from the study is that the results of the computer
scenarios were nearly identical to those predicted in similar computer
scenarios used as the basis for "The Limits to Growth."
"There is a very clear warning bell being rung here," Turner said. "We are not on a sustainable trajectory."